As a concluding blog post, I have decided to share about the future of air pollution and the major threats that mankind will continue to face in the coming years. Since it is a worldwide phenomenon, the problem of poor air quality concerns every individual on this planet and thus signals the need for humans to take immediate action on different scales – individual, national and international.

One of the most pressing concerns would be the calamitous effects of pollution on human health. Numerous studies have already highlighted the devastating consequences of living in polluted regions, including higher risk of respiratory infections, heart diseases, lung cancer and even raised premature mortality rate. These effects are attributable to both direct and indirect effects of particulate matter and gaseous air pollutants (Fig 1). 

Fig 1: Pathophysiology of Air Pollution–Driven Disease

These implications continue to worsen as air pollution becomes more widespread. According to a research paper published in Nature Climate Change, the researchers estimate that there will be 43,600 ozone-related deaths and 215,000 PM2.5-related deaths in 2100. Premature mortality attributable to climate change will be highest, particularly in India and East Asia, which aligns with the Organization for Economic and Co-operation and Development (OECD)’s report that air pollution will become the leading environmental cause of premature deaths by 2060 if no action is taken to reduce emissions (Fig 2).

Fig 2: Projections of the number of premature deaths due to air pollution in various countries

A team of researchers led by Prof. Donna Spiegelman from Havard found that the effects of air pollution on health are currently underestimated. The actual effects were almost double that of what was previously reported, as explained by this video below:

Another concern is the pronounced impacts on the environment. Climate change will play a significant role in aggravating air pollution. Rising temperatures and changing weather patterns can lead to more frequent and intense wildfires, which are major sources of air pollution. The increasing frequency of heat waves has a large effect on ozone concentrations, totaling 14% of the climate-driven ozone increase we project and 6% of the increase in air pollution-related mortality. An extension of ozone season would mean prolonged exposure to high ozone levels. Allen et al. (2016) show that GHG-induced warming yields increase in surface concentration and burden of both anthropogenic and natural aerosols, and this is related to enhanced land warming and continental aridity.

To address these challenges, governments and other stakeholders are already taking action to reduce air pollution. For example, the European Union has set targets to reduce emissions of particulate matter, nitrogen oxides, and other pollutants by 2030. Similarly, the United States has implemented regulations to reduce emissions from power plants and vehicles, which are major sources of air pollution. The Singapore Green Plan 2030 also outlines the nation’s plans to move towards building a more sustainable future.

 

Bibliography

Allen R.J., Landuyt W., Rumbold S.T. (2016). An increase in aerosol burden and radiative effects in a warmer world. Nature Climate Change, 6:269–274

Hong, C., Zhang, Q., Zhang, Y., Davis, S. J., Tong, D., Zheng, Y., . . . Schellnhuber, H. J. (2019). Impacts of climate change on future air quality and human health in China. EARTH, ATMOSPHERIC, AND PLANETARY SCIENCES, 116 (35): 17193-17200.

Keswani, A., Akselrod, H., & Anenberg, S. C. (2022). Health and Clinical Impacts of Air Pollution and Linkages with Climate Change. NEJM Evid, 1(7). https://doi.org/10.1056/EVIDra2200068

OECD. (2012). ENVIRONMENTAL OUTLOOK TO 2050: The Consequences of Inaction. New York: Organization for Economic and Co-operation and Development.

Silva, R. A., West, J. J., Lamarque, J. F., Shindell, D. T., Collins, W. J., Faluvegi, G., Folberth, G. A., Horowitz, L. W., Nagashima, T., Naik, V., Rumbold, S. T., Sudo, K., Takemura, T., Bergmann, D., Cameron-Smith, P., Doherty, R. M., Josse, B., MacKenzie, I. A., Stevenson, D. S., & Zeng, G. (2017). FUTURE GLOBAL MORTALITY FROM CHANGES IN AIR POLLUTION ATTRIBUTABLE TO CLIMATE CHANGE. Nature climate change, 7(9), 647–651. https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3354

Singapore Green Plan 2030. (2023, March 13). A City of Green Possibilities. Retrieved from SG Green Plan: https://www.greenplan.gov.sg/